Poker – Knowing When To Fold Em
July 23rd, 2009
Two opponents have called the bet before the flop, and now you make it two bets to go with 0-0 on the button. The big blind and both other opponents call the raise, and the flop comes 0-0-0. The big blind checks, the first "limper" (caller) bets out, and the second limper folds. You then raise to find out "where you're at" (great strategy!) and the big blind calls. The remaining limper, whose play falls somewhere between that of a lion and that of a jackal (he's a fairly strong player who's sometimes unpredictable), now reraises, making it three bets to go. You call, and now the big blind calls as well.
Fourth street brings 0, for 0-0-0-0, and the big blind checks and the limper bets out. You fold because you can't beat a pair of queens or a flush (the flush draw hit!) and you're afraid of both the limper and the big blind. What hand could the limper make it three bets with on the flop, and nonetheless be a hand you can now beat?
If he has a flush draw, then he hits his flush. If he has a pair of queens, then you're already beat. If he has a "set" (trips made with a pocket pair like 2-2 and a 2 on the board, then you're also beat). Of course it's possible that the limper is overplaying a pair of threes, like A-3 (with 2-3-Q on board) or something similar, but it's very unlikely that he would reraise on the flop with that hand. About the only realistic hope for you is that the limper three-bet with A-K, a hand your jacks still beat. That's certainly not an impossible holding, but are you willing to pay off big bets on both the turn and the river to find out if you're right? If the limper is willing to push A-K on the turn, there's a very realistic possibility that he will push one more time with it on the river.
I won't carry the script of this hand further, but suffice to say that you made the right play, because there is almost no hand that you can beat at this point in the hand. Chasing (calling) on the strength of the slight hope that the limper is playing like a maniac and pushing his A-K will gouge big chunks out of your bankroll over the long run.
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